THE FATE OF THE ‘MARITIME GIANT’: WHY HAS THE FISHERIES SECTOR'S CONTRIBUTION TO GDP REMAINED BELOW 3% FOR A DECADE?

Abstract

The fisheries sector is a vital pillar of Indonesia's maritime economy, yet its contribution to the national GDP continues to face structural stagnation. This study aims to analyze the influence of specific fisheries sector variables, namely: Domestic Investment (PMDN) in Fisheries, Foreign Investment (PMA) in Fisheries, Fisheries Production Volume, and Fisheries Export Value on the Fisheries GDP in Indonesia for the 2015-2025 period. The analytical method employed is multiple linear regression using the double log model. The results indicate that simultaneously, all independent variables in the fisheries sector significantly influence the Fisheries GDP. However, partially, only Domestic Investment (PMDN) in Fisheries has a positive and significant impact. Conversely, Foreign Investment (PMA) in Fisheries, Fisheries Production Volume, and Fisheries Export Value do not show a significant effect. The lack of significance among these variables suggests structural constraints, such as low product downstreaming, logistical inefficiencies, and the negative impact of Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing, which leads to a leakage of economic value-added before it can be recorded in the national GDP. This study recommends that the government strengthen the domestic capital base and tighten maritime surveillance to suppress fish poaching. A downstreaming strategy for fisheries export products is key to ensuring that physical production capacity can be optimally converted into economic value-added for national GDP growth.